(July 9, 2010) Washington - This morning USDA’s July WASDE report was released. While it made some changes to the corn supply-demand estimates, it is likely that supply will get a boost with a larger yield estimate likely next month. "This morning's report suggests corn producers are still on track for a record crop in 2010," said RFA Vice President of Research Geoff Cooper. "If the corn crop can avoid significant stress during pollination, we should be looking at another record or near-record average yield. But harvest is still several months away and nothing is certain until the crop is in the bins." Key facts related to today’s report:

YIELDS:
**USDA did not adjust its estimate for 2010 average corn yield in today’s report, meaning the corn supply outlook is likely to change when the August report is released. The August report will offer USDA’s first survey-based estimate of average corn yields.

**Because of record planting progress and mostly favorable growing conditions, many analysts expect an average yield equal to or higher than last year’s record yield of 164.7 bu/acre.

**A higher yield estimate in August could change USDA’s corn supply and carry-out estimates considerably.

EXPORTS:
**At 1.95 billion bushels, 2010/11 corn exports would be equal to last year (2009/10) and 5% higher than 2008/09.

**Even though USDA slightly reduced export projections, 2010/11 exports would be at their fourth-highest level since 1995.

U.S. CORN ENDING STOCKS:
**While slightly lower than in recent years, 2010/11 corn ending stocks are projected to be plentiful at 1.4 billion bushels. Ending stocks have been lower many times (8 times in fact) in the past 20 years (06/07, 03/04, 02/03, 97/98, 96/97, 95/96, 93/94, and 91/92). The 10-year average for ending stocks is 1.57 billion bushels.

**USDA is not expecting the reduced level of stocks to have much impact on corn prices; they raised corn price expectations just 15 cents/bushel.

GLOBAL GRAIN STOCKS:
**While down slightly from the June projection, USDA is still expecting record global grain production in 2010/11.

**While global grain stocks are projected 1.4% below last year, global stocks are still strong by historical standards and 3% above 2008/09.

ETHANOL USE:
**USDA is projecting 4.7 billion bushels will be used for ethanol in 2010/11, which equates to about 13.1 billion gallons of production between September 2010 and August 2011. Unless EPA approves E15 for all vehicles in the near-term, this level of production seems unlikely, meaning USDA likely overestimated ethanol use.

**The 4.7 billion bushels projected for ethanol use would produce 36 million metric tons of livestock feed, or the equivalent of 1.4 billion bushels. This means livestock feed use of corn (5.35 billion bu.) and corn co-products will top the equivalent of 6.7 billion bushels in 2010/11.

Contact:
Geoff Cooper
RFA VP of Research
gcooper@ethanolrfa.org
(636) 594-2284